A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
